The top predictor of job success most companies ignore when hiring
Most companies hire on the back of three things:
- A CV
- Two interviews
- A reference check after the decision is pretty much made
It’s a bit like buying a car without taking it for a spin.
A landmark study, based on 85+ years of data, demonstrated that work sample tests are the top predictor of job success–bar none yet many omit it from their recruitment process. Often called The Test Drive — it’s a real-world simulation of the job you’re hiring for.
Done well, it’s more predictive than interviews, reference checks, or qualifications, yet it’s still surprisingly rare.
What could it look like:
At the end of the process you could set your final candidates a ..
- 2-hour, half-day, or even 2-day real-world tasks
- At-home assignments for individual contributors
- In-person sessions for execs with their future teams
Examples:
- Hiring a CFO? Give them your Q2 financials and ask for an analysis and presentation.
- Hiring an Accounts Manager? Run a half or full day test drive that measures how quickly the candidate picks up your processes, maintains accuracy or picks up on discrepancies in real-world tasks.
- Hiring a Sales Manager? A team member is struggling with a tender, what advise would they give, followed by pitching a product of the company’s to a prospective client
- Hiring a Product Manager? Have them research a market, potential revenue streams for a new product, competitors, price points etc., report back.
Remember, its always worth considering paying candidates for their time – it shows respect, and it’s far cheaper than a bad long-term hire.
How to run a test drive:
Tips –
- Make it real, not academic – Use actual anonymised company data and situations they’d face in your business. No puzzle or trick problems, those measure test-taking skills, not role readiness.
- Create psychological safety – Explain it’s not a pass or fail exam, but to see how they think and approach challenges. Reassure them they’ll have access to reasonable resources and clarifying questions.
- Assess process, not just outcome – Even if the final product isn’t perfect, look for: logical approach, prioritisation, how they structure their thinking, how they communicate and adapt.
- Build in “help points” – In real life, they could ask colleagues for input. Let them do the same here. You could observe how they ask for help and how they respond.
- Combine with other signals –Balance the test drive with structured interviews, and early reference checks. A “wobbly” test drive from someone with stellar past performance and references might mean the test was an anomaly, or that they’ll need a strong onboarding.
- Calibrate difficulty – If it’s too hard or abstract, you’ll just test stress tolerance, not competence. Keep the scope achievable, slightly below what’s required in the role.
I’ve found candidates, especially top performers like it too, especially when the process hasn’t been unnecessarily cumbersome (i.e. more than 2 other stages). Both sides see what it’s really like, which means fewer surprises later. It also makes you stand out as an employer who takes hiring seriously.